Hoffman vs. Rivera

Career saves for Mariano Rivera: 518.

Career saves for Trevor Hoffman: 580.

That’s all the evidence that my father needs to anoint Mr. Hoffman the best closer of all-time, and not Mr. Rivera.

And that is idiotic for several reasons.

Hoffman was a full-time closer in 1994, while Rivera wasn’t until 1997. So

Game over

Hoffman, even though he missed virtually the entire 2003 season, has had nearly 100 more save opportunities than Rivera. So OF COURSE he’s going to have more saves than Mariano.

But forget that. What is the job of the closer? Get the save. No matter what. Who cares how pretty it is, just hold the lead.

And if you look at their stats once they became full-time closers, Mariano has done better at that.

• Rivera: 510-for-567 (89.95%)
• Hoffman: 570-for-636 (89.62%)

OK, but if you think it DOES matter how you get there, Mariano still has the edge. And it’s an edge in no matter what you look at.

ERA: Rivera 2.05/Hoffman 2.63

ERA+: Rivera 219/Hoffman 152

Second best ain't bad

WHIP: Rivera 0.98/Hoffman 1.02

BB/9: Rivera 1.9/Hoffman 2.4

HR/9: Rivera 0.5/Hoffman 0.8

BB/K: Rivera 4.32/Hoffman 4.10

Record: Rivera 56-45/Hoffman 53-61

And there’s a certain thing that my father forgets that makes what Rivera has done compared to Hoffman even more impressive: Mariano has done all his work in the American League, while Hoffman has had the benefit of pitching in the National League — a league that has been vastly inferior to the AL for 10 years now.

Oh, and you want clutch?

Does an 8-1 record with 56 saves, a 0.77 ERA and 0.75 WHIP work for you in the playoffs?

I thought so.

Mariano will surpass Hoffman in career saves. And he’ll do it with a higher conversion rate. And with the best adjusted ERA of all-time and as perhaps the greatest playoff pitcher ever.

This debate is over. Cue the music.

 

Driving drunk on PEDs

If you ask Bronson Arroyo, pretty much every Major Leaguer takes performance-enhancing drugs — while driving drunk.

Oh wait, that’s not exactly what he said.

But it’s certainly close.

Arroyo had a lot of interesting things to say, just hours before tossing a 2-hit shutout against the robust lineup of the Washington Nationals.

Here some of my favorites:

• “[Taking PEDs] might be dangerous, but so is drinking and driving. And how many of us do it at least once a year? Pretty much everybody.”

Is he referring to professional athletes or the Average Joe? Because this average Joe has done neither of those things, thank you very much!

• “I can see where guys like Hank Aaron and some of the old-timers have a beef with [PEDs]. But as far as looking at Manny Ramirez like he’s [serial killer] Ted Bundy, you’re out of your mind. At the end of the day, you think anybody really [cares] whether Manny Ramirez’s kidneys fail and he dies at 50?”

Arroyo has a point. In fact, he has two reasonable points here. Manny Ramirez is way less heinous a human being than a serial killer. I can’t deny that. He’s only harming is own body, not taking human lives.

But I hate Ramirez, because he disrespects the game. He doesn’t hustle, he

Two people that don't know when to stop talking

cheats, he breaks the law [steroids are illegal in the U.S., people tend to forget that] and he quits on his team when he sees fit. He’s an embarrassment. A fantastic player, yes, but he’s a person that has no qualms of making a mockery of the game.

Arroyo’s other point in that quote is partly true. Most people wouldn’t care if Ramirez paid the consequences of taking PEDs and he dies at 50. Manny isn’t hurting us, after all.

• “[Amphetamines are] like bubble gum compared to steroids. You’re playing [night games] in L.A., you fly across the country, and you’re pitching a day game at Wrigley [Field in Chicago]. You telling me you don’t want something to wake you up? You have half this country, maybe more, that can’t function without a cup of coffee.”

I’m no doctor or nutritionist, so I can’t comment on his comparison of Amphetamines to a generic steroid. But as someone who went to college and worked in a newsroom, I can attest that 90% of people cannot function without their coffee. You know who you are.

• “I have a lot of guys in [the locker room] who think I’m out of [my] mind because I’m taking a lot of things not on the [MLB-approved] list. I take 10 to 12 different things a day, and on the days I pitch, there’s four more things. There’s a caffeine drink I take from a company that Curt Schilling introduced me to in ‘05. I take some Korean ginseng and a few other proteins out there that are not certified. But I haven’t failed any tests, so I figured I’m good.”

Yeah, you WERE good until you opened your big mouth. If I were Bud Selig, I would suspend him 50 games.

If you take drugs that are not approved by the MLB, you are suspended 50 games. Arroyo just GAVE you proof that he has taken banned drugs. Suspend him.

• “I do what I want to do and say what I want to say. But society has made this such a tainted thing. The media has made it where people look at it in such a super-negative light. I’ve always been honest. I’m not going to stop now.”

Love the honesty. It is refreshing, especially when most athletes lie and feed us B.S. 99% of the time.

But this 1% should get him fined, as I said before. Sometimes being honest isn’t the best idea. I think we all know that by now, don’t we?

• “If Mark McGwire is hitting 60 homers, the only thing that matters is his performance. People don’t own teams to lose money. If you ask any owner whether they would rather make $20 million and come in last place or lose $20 million and win a World Series, there’s only one guy who honestly would take that championship: George Steinbrenner. Nobody else.”

He’s 100% right about that one.

Although, at this point, I think Steinbrenner would take a loss of $200 million to win a World Series.

 

Claiming temporary insanity

What’s not to like about Alex Rios?

He’s a solid hitter, with a mix of power and speed. He’s also a good fielder, with a rocket arm and at 28, in the prime of his career.

Oh, wait, I know what’s not to love. (That is, unless you’re Alex Rios)

$66,000,000.

That’s how much money is left on Rios’ contract, which runs for 5 1/2 more seasons. That’s a big chunk of change — especially for a player who has never hit 25 home runs, a player who has never driven in 90 runs and a player who has never had an on-base percentage of over .354.

Surely, no Major League team would make the same mistake that the Toronto Blue Jays made and pay a player approximately $12 million per season for a slightly-above average player. (His career OPS+ is 104).

Right?

Alex Rios: Chicago-bound? I don't think so.

Well, apparently that assumption is wrong — because a team recently claimed Rios off of waivers.

But which team?

If you believe Buster Olney, and MLB.com White Sox beat report Scott Merkin, it was those very same White Sox.

Not if you ask White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams, though.

Now I realize that GMs use misdirection and play virtually everything close to the vest — Williams does that more than perhaps anybody — but I am inclined to trust Williams on this one.

I say this for two reasons.

1. How can the White Sox afford this guy?

Owner Jerry Reinsdorf had to be convinced to sign off on the Jake Peavy trade due to a highly increased payroll — so I find it hard to believe Reinsdorf would once again add substantially to the payroll.

2. How would Rios fit into the lineup?

He’s more of a right fielder, and a man named Jermaine Dye — easily one of the five best right fielders in the game — plays there.  Rios has never played left field before (Carlos Quentin is entrenched there, anyway) and the White Sox need Scott Podsednik to start in center field because of his leadoff skills.

Dye’s contract runs out after this season, yes, but Chicago appear to have a strong interest in an extension and seem to be too smart to vastly overpay for a player like Rios.

Heck, I’m probably wrong. But if I were a betting man (which, actually, I am), I would place a wager that it the San Francisco Giants were the ones who claimed Rios.

It makes perfect sense. They have a terrible offense and are in a heated pennant race for the NL Wild Card. They are desperate for offense and he could start in right field and be a middle-of-the-order bat for them instantly. The Giants could afford him. And they need him more than the White Sox do. Much, much more.

We’ll find out soon enough. I hope I’m wrong, though, because betting on that would be illegal in the state in which I reside.

 

Level of guiltiness

Is David Ortiz guilty of knowingly using PEDs?

Is David Ortiz guilty of unknowingly using PEDs?

It pretty much has to be one or the other, doesn’t it?

If you listened to what Big Papi said at Saturday afternoon’s press conference, he claims it was the latter. I lean towards the former. What do you think?

And no matter which way you look at it, David Ortiz cheated.

 

No walking in Minnesota

(Editors note: This entry is an updated version of a post I made on my previous baseball blog.)

What exactly do the pitching coaches in Minnesota teach that the other teams don’t? Judging by the impeccable control by nearly all Twins pitching staff’s of the past 22 seasons, it’s something substantial.

And if not, check the water in Minnesota…

YEAR	AL RANK	Walks Allowed	League Average
2009	1st	462 (pace)	555 (-93)
2008	1st	309	420 (-111)
2007	2nd	420	531 (-111)
2006	1st	356	509 (-153)
2005	1st	348	483 (-135)
2004	1st	431	537 (-106)
2003	2nd	402	508 (-106)
2002	3rd	439	521 (-82)
2001	2nd	445	519 (-74)
2000	3rd	516	599 (-83)
1999	2nd	487	593 (-106)
1998	1st	457	550 (-93)
1997	1st	495	561 (-66)
1996	3rd	581	614 (-33)
1995	7th	533	541 (-8)
1994	3rd	388	424 (-36)
1993	1st	514	572 (-58)
1992	2nd	479	550 (-71)
1991	2nd	488	552 (-64)
1990	3rd	489	545 (-56)
1989	7th	500	520 (-20)
1988	3rd	453	514 (-61)

AVERAGE: 2.3            454.2     532.7 (-78.5)

NOTES:

• Not ONCE in the last 22 years have the Twins issued more walks than the league average.
• In 20 of the 22 years, Minnesota ranked in the Top 3 in the AL.
• For six straight seasons, the Twins have issued at least 100 less walks than the league average — 2009 could mark the 7th straight.
• Over the last 22 years, Minnesota averages 78.5 fewer walks than the league average.
• Over that 22 year span, the Twins’ average rank in the AL is 2.3.

I can see a team sustaining this for a 3-6 year period or so, but for 20+ years? Does anyone have an explanation for how this is possible?

 

Fixing Perfection

Sometimes being the best isn’t quite good enough.

I take that back. Sorry, baseball, you’re great just the way you are.

But that doesn’t mean you are without flaws. Hey — even the world’s greatest game can be even greater.

With that said, I introduce my 8-step program to make it even better. And if Bud Selig can complete the program, baseball will be as close to perfect as possible.

STEP 1: Abolish the Designated Hitter

It doesn’t even bother me that the two leagues have different rules. No, my main beef with the DH is this: AL pitchers can throw at any hitter they want, and never worry about being retaliated against. It’s their teammates that have to worry.

Isn’t the NL-game more pure? Double-switches, stealing bases, pinch-hitting for the pitcher, letting the pitcher hit. It’s all good. Much more strategy involved. Why ruin that — along with tradition from 1876-1972 — with the DH?

Step 2: Get rid of Inter-league Play

Or at least cut it down to 1-2 series per team.

There are way too many inter-league games — especially between teams like Colorado and Kansas City, I mean, who cares?

But my main problem rests with the fact that inter-league play in some small way ruins the allure of the World Series and the All-Star Game. It used to be that the AL and NL only saw each other two times per year. Now it’s all the time.

A World Series between teams that have already played that year (which is always possible) just isn’t as intriguing.

I won’t lie, seeing Chicago vs. Chicago and New York vs. New York is a lot of fun. So let’s at least limit each team to playing one rival each year.

Step 3: Home-Field Advantage

“This time it counts!”

Please.

Seriously, how stupid is it that the winner of the All-Star Game determines home-field advantage in the World Series?

Anyone with a brain knows it should be determined by the team with the best record. Should one game be the barometer of home-field or should 162?

If MLB wants the two leagues to battle it out to decide, then why not give home-field to whichever league does better in Inter-League Play? Even that’s better than one All-Star Game that neither manager ever TRULY tries to win. If you’re truly trying to win, you don’t take out Albert Pujols after two or three at-bats.

Speaking of the All-Star Game, the roster sizes are getting ridiuclous. They add one addional spot every year. We really need 33 players? At this rate, every player in a uniform will be voted into one All-Star game by 2020.

And by the way, if we HAVE the DH, do we really need to see pitchers hit in the ASG? It’s obsurd. I don’t care if the game is in a NL park or not. No one wants to see Tim Lincecum hit when Prince Fielder is on the bench available to hit.

And one last gripe. I hate how so many of the pitchers on the All-Star Team are relievers. I can see 3-4 but 6-7? Stupid. Reward more starters.

Step 4: Atrocious Official Scoring

Idiotic Mistake No. 1: If you don’t touch the ball, it’s not an error.

Idiotic Mistake No. 2: “You can’t assume the double play.”

Simply put, official scoring stinks today. They never give errors anymore. If a player totally mis-plays a ball and doesn’t touch it, somehow it’s not an error.

Ludicrous. If the  play should have been made, it should have been made. It’s an error. It’s not complicated.

And I hate how no error is given because “you can’t assume the double play.” Um, yes, you can. If there’s a man on first and a routine ball is hit to short, you SHOULD assume the double play.

If they get the lead runner and a good throw WOULD get the runner out on first, and that throw isn’t made, it SHOULD be an error. How is that any different from any other bad throw? If he should have been thrown out, and isn’t, it’s an error. It has to be.

Errors used to be given out more frequently. Official-scorers were tougher on fielders and they should be. We’re talking about the best baseball players in the world — they should be making the plays.

Take a look at the average amount of errors per team throughout history

• 1908:  278 errors
• 1918: 193 errors
• 1928:  193 errors
• 1938:  173 errors
• 1948:  138 errors
• 1958:  125 errors
• 1968:  138 errors
• 1978:  139 errors
• 1988:  119 errors
• 1998:  114 errors
• 2008:  99 errors

Yes, gloves got better and bigger as time went on. That explains some of it, sure. And athletes got bigger, faster and stronger. That’s also a part of this. But not all of it.

Official scorers are way too easy on players now. It’s a fact.

Step 5: If the throw beats the runner…

Then almost every umpire automatically calls them out.

Hey, I have an idea! How about umpires call baserunners safe or out based on whether or not the fielder tagged the runner out in time or not? What a wild idea, I know.

I don’t just bring this up because of the recent infamous Derek Jeter incident regarding this very same matter. It happens all the time. You see baserunners get in safely on throws that beat them all the time. Umpires just seem not to care.

Step 6: “In the area” double plays

You’ve seen in. A double play where either the second baseman or shortstop doesn’t even come CLOSE to touching the second base bag when turning a double play.

But hey, as long as they are “in the area” it’s legit, right? That’s hogwash. I propose a crazy idea where fielders actually have to TOUCH SECOND BASE to record the double play. Wild.

Step 7: The Sacrifice Fly

Guy on third, less than two outs…

Scenario A: Fly ball to center field. Run scores, batter is out.

Scenario B: Ground ball to shortstop. Run scores, batter is out.

Same outcome. Yet, in Scenario A, the batter is not charged with an at-bat, but player in Scenario B, is. How does that make any sense? They did the exact same thing. They got the run in and both made an out. They should not be scored differently.

Either both should be charged with an official at-bat, or both should be charged with a sacrifice.

Step 8: Awarding the victory

This doesn’t happen often, but is a problem in my eyes.

June 30, 2009. John Smoltz pitches four strong innings against Baltimore before the rain comes and delays the game by 1 hour, 11 minutes. The Red Sox lead 9-1.

Because of the rain delay, Smoltz is removed from the game (it’s an injury risk to resume pitching after such a long delay) and Justin Masterson is inserted into the game.

He pitches horribly, allowing five earned runs in just two innings of work. But Boston still leads, 9-6.

Famously, Baltimore comes back to win this crazy game, 11-10. But for the sake of discussion of a flawed rule, let’s say Boston held on to win 9-6.

Who should get the win? Smoltz or Masterson? According to the rule book, a starting pitcher MUST go five innings to secure the win. Good rule, 99% of the time. But in this game, Masterson would be the winning pitcher.

Does that not seem stupid? Smoltz pitched well and helped Boston get out to a big lead. He didn’t pitch less than five innings because of a high pitch count or poor performance, but because of the common practice of taking out a pitcher after a long rain delay to avoid injury.

What in god’s name did Masterson do to earn the win? He got bombed. He would have lost the game for them had the offense not scored nine runs. He had NO PART whatsoever in helping the Red Sox win.

This is the only instance in which an exception should be made to the 5-inning rule.

 

PEDs and the Hall of Fame

Over the last five years or so, stat-geeks everywhere have fallen in love with ‘OPS’. And what’s not to love? This new and hip statistic combines two old classics: on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Add those two dandies together and you have a players’ OPS. By doing so, you get a good measure of not just how often they get on base, but how much damage they are causing when doing so.

Considering Babe Ruth, Ted Williams and Lou Gehrig rank 1-2-3 all-time in the category, OPS must be good for something. In fact, of the Top 12 retired and Hall-of-Fame eligible players in career OPS, 11 of them are enshrined in Cooperstown.

The one loner?

Mark McGwire — who ranks 8th all-time among HOF-eligible players.

I wonder why that is…

Mr. McGwire has been largely ignored in his three chances on the ballot:

• 2009: 118 votes (21.9%)
• 2008: 128 votes (23.6%)
• 2007: 128 votes (23.5%)

The consistency in those three ballots tell me that many HOF voters refuse to vote for a player linked to PEDs. One-fourth of the voters view McGwire as a Hall-of-Famer, even as a player widely expected to have used steroids during his career. My guess is that many of the 75% not voting for him WOULD have, had it not been for his testimony in front of Congress, where he famously said “I’m not here to talk about the past.”

If I had a vote, I would not check off his name.

For me, it’s simple. For the first 10 years of his career, McGwire was a below-average hitter with power. Then, when he likely began using PEDs, he became much bigger and a better hitter with astronomical power.

McGwire: After & Before

In other words, he wasn’t a Hall-of-Fame caliber player from 1986-1995. And he only became worthy (numbers-wise), beginning in 1996.

Numbers (‘86-’95): .252 AVG/.369 OBP/.523 SLG/.892 OPS/277 HR

Numbers (‘96-’99): .290 AVG/.437 OBP/.704 SLG/1.142 OPS/245 HR

As a 36-year-old, his eye-popping numbers died down a bit in 2000. And in 2001 — his final season — he hit .187 over 364 at-bats.

Now let’s compare McGwire with another player who everyone assumed (me, included) used PEDs to enhance their careers.

Barry Bonds, of course.

For the sake of this argument, I would guess that he began using (allegedly) in 2001, when he broke McGwire’s single-season home run record with 73 long balls.

Numbers (‘86-’00): .289 AVG/.412 OBP/.567 SLG/.979 OPS/494 HR/471 SB

Numbers (‘01-’07): .325 AVG/.531 OBP/.731 SLG/1,262 OPS/268 HR

Compare Bonds’ pre-PED years with McGwire’s. Not even close. Bonds WAS a Hall-of-Fame worthy player before he ever put anything unsanitary into his body. McGwire wasn’t.

And that’s why Bonds would have my vote, while McGwire wouldn’t.

Now it’s your turn to weigh-in…